Cover image for The emergence of numerical weather prediction : Richardson's dream
Title:
The emergence of numerical weather prediction : Richardson's dream
Author:
Lynch, Peter, 1947-
Personal Author:
Publication Information:
Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2006.
Physical Description:
xii, 279 pages : illustrations, maps ; 25 cm
Summary:
"This book tells the story of Lewis Fry Richardson's trial forecast, and the fulfilment of his dream of practical weather forecasting and climate modelling. It has a complete reconstruction of Richardson's forecast, and analyses in detail the causes of the failure of this forecast. It also includes a description of current practice, with particular emphasis on the work of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This book will appeal to everyone involved in numerical weather forecasting, from researchers and graduate students to professionals."--BOOK JACKET.
Language:
English
Contents:
Weather prediction by numerical process -- The fundamental equations -- The oscillations of the atmosphere -- The barotropic forecast -- The solution algorithm -- Observations and initial fields -- Richardson's forecast -- Balance and initialisation -- Smoothing the forecast -- The ENIAC integrations -- Numerical weather prediction today -- Fulfilment of the dream -- Appendixes: 1.Table of notation -- 2. Milestones in Richardson's life and career -- 3. Laplace tidal equations : separation of variables -- 4. Richardson's forecast factory : the $64 000 question.
ISBN:
9780521857291

9781107414839
Format :
Book

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QC995 .L93 2006 Adult Non-Fiction Non-Fiction Area
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Summary

Summary

Lewis Fry Richardson dreamt that scientific weather prediction would one day become a practical reality. Before his ideas could bear fruit several advances were needed: better understanding of the dynamics of the atmosphere; stable computational algorithms to integrate the equations; regular observations of the free atmosphere; and powerful automatic computer equipment. By 1950 advances in all these fronts were sufficient to permit the first computer forecast to be made. Over the ensuing fifty years progress in numerical weather prediction has been dramatic. Weather prediction and climate modelling have now reached a high level of sophistication. This book, first published in 2006, tells the story of Richardson's trial forecast, and the fulfilment of his dream of practical numerical weather forecasting. It includes a complete reconstruction of Richardson's forecast, and analyses in detail the causes of his failure. This will appeal to everyone involved in numerical weather forecasting, from researchers and graduate students to professionals.


Author Notes

Peter Lynch is the vice-chairman of Fidelity Management and Research.

Lynch wrote "One Up on Wall Street," "Beating the Street," and "Learning to Earn," all of which are guides to investing, tracking, and reading the stock market.

(Bowker Author Biography)


Table of Contents

Guiding signsp. viii
Prefacep. ix
Acknowledgementsp. xi
1 Weather Prediction by Numerical Processp. 1
1.1 The problemp. 1
1.2 Vilhelm Bjerknes and scientific forecastingp. 4
1.3 Outline of Richardson's life and workp. 10
1.4 The origin of Weather Prediction by Numerical Processp. 14
1.5 Outline of the contents of WPNPp. 18
1.6 Preview of remaining chaptersp. 25
2 The fundamental equationsp. 29
2.1 Richardson's general circulation modelp. 30
2.2 The basic equationsp. 31
2.3 The vertical velocity equationp. 39
2.4 Temperature in the stratospherep. 42
2.5 Pressure co-ordinatesp. 44
3 The oscillations of the atmospherep. 47
3.1 The Laplace tidal equationsp. 48
3.2 Normal modes of the atmospherep. 49
3.3 Atmospheric tidesp. 55
3.4 Numerical solution of the Laplace tidal equationsp. 56
4 The barotropic forecastp. 63
4.1 Richardson's model and datap. 63
4.2 The finite difference schemep. 65
4.3 Richardson's conclusionsp. 68
4.4 The global numerical modelp. 70
4.5 Extending the forecastp. 72
4.6 Non-divergent and balanced initial conditionsp. 75
4.7 Reflections on the single layer modelp. 77
5 The solution algorithmp. 79
5.1 The finite difference methodp. 79
5.2 Integration in timep. 81
5.3 The Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy stability criterionp. 85
5.4 The Richardson gridp. 87
5.5 The equations for the stratap. 89
5.6 The computational algorithmp. 92
6 Observations and initial fieldsp. 97
6.1 Aerological observationsp. 97
6.2 Dines' meteorographp. 100
6.3 The Leipzig chartsp. 104
6.4 Preparation of the initial fieldsp. 109
7 Richardson's forecastp. 117
7.1 What Richardson actually predicted: 20 numbersp. 117
7.2 Scaling the equations of motionp. 120
7.3 Analysis of the initial tendenciesp. 125
7.4 The causes of the forecast failurep. 131
7.5 Max Margules and the 'impossibility' of forecastingp. 133
8 Balance and initialisationp. 137
8.1 Balance in the atmospherep. 137
8.2 The slow manifoldp. 140
8.3 Techniques of initialisationp. 142
8.4 The swinging springp. 146
8.5 Digital filter initialisationp. 152
9 Smoothing the forecastp. 159
9.1 Reconstruction of the forecastp. 159
9.2 Richardson's five smoothing methodsp. 162
9.3 Digital filtering of the initial datap. 164
9.4 Extension of the forecastp. 175
10 The ENIAC integrationsp. 181
10.1 The 'Meteorology Project'p. 182
10.2 The filtered equationsp. 187
10.3 The first computer forecastp. 190
10.4 The barotropic modelp. 196
10.5 Multi-level modelsp. 199
10.6 Primitive equation modelsp. 202
10.7 General circulation models and climate modellingp. 206
11 Numerical weather prediction todayp. 209
11.1 Observational datap. 209
11.2 Objective analysisp. 213
11.3 Progress in computingp. 219
11.4 The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecastsp. 221
11.5 Meso-scale modellingp. 228
11.6 Chaos, predictability and ensemble forecastingp. 231
12 Fulfilment of the dreamp. 243
12.1 Richardson's explanation of his glaring errorp. 243
12.2 The 'forecast factory'p. 246
12.3 Richardson's dreamp. 248
Appendix 1 Table of notationp. 251
Appendix 2 Milestones in Richardson's life and careerp. 254
Appendix 3 Laplace tidal equations: separation of variablesp. 256
Appendix 4 Richardson's forecast factory: the $64 000 questionp. 259
Referencesp. 262
Indexp. 274