Introduction : Death, taxes, and environmental policy / Daniel Sarewitz, Roger A. Pielke, Jr., and Radford Byerly, Jr. -- Prediction in science and policy / Daniel Sarewitz and Roger A. Pielke, Jr. -- Why predict? Historical perpspectives on prediction in earth science / Naomi Oreskes -- Uncertainty, judgment, and error in prediction / Thomas R. Stewart -- Short-term weather prediction : an orchestra in need of a conductor / William H. Hooke and Roger Pielke, Jr. -- Flood prediction : immersed in the quagmire of national flood mitigation strategy / Stanley A. Changnon -- The asteroid/comet impact hazard : Homo sapiens as dinosaur? / Clark R. Chapman -- Predicting earthquakes : science, pseudoscience, and public policy paradox / Joanne M. Nigg -- What you know can hurt you : predicting the behavior of nourished beaches / Orrin H. Pilkey -- Is this number to your liking? Water quality predictions in mining impact studies / Robert E. Moran -- From tin roof to torn wet blanket : predicting and observing groundwater movement at a proposed nuclear waste site / Daniel Metlay -- Oil and gas resource appraisal : diminishing reserves, increasing supplies / Donald L. Gautier -- Predictive modeling of acid rain : obstacles to generating useful information / Charles Herrick -- Prediction and other approaches to climate change policy / Steve Rayner -- Alternatives to prediction / Ronald D. Brunner -- Prediction in society / Dale Jamieson -- Prediction and characteristic times / Radford Byerly, Jr. -- A decision framework for prediction in environmental policy / Charles Herrick and J. Michael Pendleton -- Decision making and the future of nature : understanding and using predictions / Roger A. Pielke, Jr., Daniel Sarewitz, and Radford Byerly, Jr.