Cover image for Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis
Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis
Lempert, Robert J.
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Publication Information:
Santa Monica, CA : RAND, [2003]

Physical Description:
xxi, 187 pages : color illustrations ; 23 cm
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T57.6 .L46 2003 Adult Non-Fiction Non-Fiction Area

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The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Table of Contents

Prefacep. iii
Figuresp. vii
Tablesp. ix
Summaryp. xi
Acknowledgmentsp. xix
Abbreviationsp. xxi
Chapter 1 The Challenge of Long-Term Policy Analysisp. 1
Quantitative LTPA May Now Be Possiblep. 3
The Challenge of Global Sustainable Developmentp. 7
Surprise: The Constant Elementp. 8
Organization of This Reportp. 8
Chapter 2 A History of Thinking about the Futurep. 11
Narratives: Mirrors of the Present, Visions of the Futurep. 12
Group Narrative Processes: Delphi and Foresightp. 16
Simulation Modelingp. 20
Formal Decision Analysis Under Conditions of Deep Uncertaintyp. 25
Scenarios: Multiple Views of the Futuresp. 29
Assessing the State of the Artp. 36
Chapter 3 Robust Decisionmakingp. 39
Decisionmaking Under Conditions of Deep Uncertaintyp. 40
Consider Ensembles of Scenariosp. 45
Seek Robust Strategiesp. 52
Employ Adaptive Strategiesp. 57
Combine Machine and Human Capabilities Interactivelyp. 62
Concluding Thoughtsp. 66
Chapter 4 A Framework for Scenario Generationp. 69
The Challenge of Global Environmental Sustainabilityp. 69
The "XLRM" Frameworkp. 70
Chapter 5 Implementing Robust Decisionmakingp. 87
Overview: Interactive Analysis of Sustainable Developmentp. 87
Landscapes of Plausible Futuresp. 91
No Fixed Strategy Is Robustp. 96
Exploring Near-Term Milestonesp. 103
Identifying a Robust Strategyp. 110
Characterizing Irreducible Risksp. 117
Confronting Surprise in Sustainable Developmentp. 121
Chapter 6 Policy-Relevant Long-Term Policy Analysisp. 125
Building Policy-Relevant Scenario Generatorsp. 126
Improved Navigationp. 131
A Diversity of Measures and Valuesp. 135
Engaging the Community of Stakeholdersp. 137
Improving Long-Term Decisionmakingp. 141
Chapter 7 Conclusion: Moving Past Familiar Shoresp. 145
A. Description of the Wonderland Scenario Generatorp. 149
B. Assessing Robust Strategiesp. 165
Bibliographyp. 179