The Forrest Gump syndrome -- Igniting a passion -- The first in white-collar downsizing -- Doing economics right : a road map -- Tapping the power with applications -- Testing our credibility -- Getting further established -- Moving out of the 1980s -- The "jobless" recovery -- Changes underway in credit markets and at the fed -- A "virtuous" cycle -- Crisis at home and abroad -- The second shoe drops -- Fertile ground for asset bubbles -- Y2K and other monsters of 2000 -- The economics of the Internet -- Old rules for the new economy -- Applying rules 1 and 2 -- Hitting a wall -- Applying rule number 3 -- Risk management at the fed -- "Benchmark revisions" -- A scapegoat or an 800-pound gorilla? -- The quiet before the storm -- A recessionette? -- A fundamental disconnect -- Framing the outlook -- Structural change -- A shallow pool of answers -- Reading the tea leaves -- The optimism and devotion of the young.