Cover image for Strategic appraisal : United States air and space power in the 21st century
Title:
Strategic appraisal : United States air and space power in the 21st century
Author:
Khalilzad, Zalmay.
Publication Information:
Santa Monica, CA : RAND, Project Air Force, [2002]

©2002
Physical Description:
xxviii, 481 pages : illustrations, maps ; 23 cm
General Note:
"Prepared for the United States Air Force."

"MR-1314-AF"--P. [4] of cover.
Language:
English
Reading Level:
1510 Lexile.
Corporate Subject:
Added Corporate Author:
ISBN:
9780833029546
Format :
Book

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Summary

Summary

Change--in international relations, in technology, and in society as a whole--has become the idiom of our age. One example of these changes has been an increasing recognition of the value of air and space assets for handling nearly every contingency from disaster relief to war and, onsequently, increasing demand for such assets. These developments have created both challenges and opportunities for the U.S. Air Force. This, the fourth volume in the Strategic Appraisal series, draws on the expertise of researchers from across RAND to explore both the challenges and opportunities that the U.S. Air Force faces as it strives to support the nation's interests in a challenging technological and security environment.Contributors examine the changing roles of air and space forces in U.S.national security strategy, the implications of new systems and technologiesfor military operations, and the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. securitystrategy. Contributors also discuss the status of major modernizationefforts within the Air Force, and the bill of health of the Air Force, asmeasured by its readiness to undertake its missions both today and in thefuture.


Table of Contents

Jeremy ShapiroZalmay Khalilzad and David Ochmanek and Jeremy ShapiroDaniel L. Byman and Matthew C. Waxman and Jeremy ShapiroDonald Stevens and John Gibson and David OchmanekBob Preston and John BakerBrian NichiporukGlenn BuchanRichard F. MesicDavid ShlapakRobert Tripp and C. Robert Roll, Jr.Frank CammCarl Dahlman and David Thaler
Prefacep. iii
Figuresp. xiii
Tablesp. xvii
Acknowledgmentsp. xix
Abbreviationsp. xxi
Chapter 1 Introduction: The Price of Successp. 1
What Has Stayed the Samep. 2
What Has Changedp. 4
Smaller-Scale Contingenciesp. 4
The Threat of Weapons of Mass Destructionp. 5
Emerging Challengesp. 6
Emerging Opportunitiesp. 8
Getting Past Successp. 11
Part I The Geopolitical Context for Aerospace Powerp. 13
Chapter 2 Forces for What? Geopolitical Context and Air Force Capabilitiesp. 15
The Geopolitical Contextp. 15
Evolution of the International Systemp. 16
U.S. Goalsp. 29
U.S. Requirements for Military Forcesp. 32
The Maturation of U.S. Aerospace Power: Capabilities of Today's Forcesp. 35
Defeating Enemy Air Attacksp. 35
Destroying Fixed Targetsp. 35
Destroying Mechanized Ground Forcesp. 37
Information and Its Usesp. 38
Survivabilityp. 39
Implications for U.S. Joint Operationsp. 41
Challenges for the USAFp. 42
Modernization and Recapitalizationp. 43
Human Capitalp. 44
Conclusion: Creating Optionsp. 46
Referencesp. 46
Chapter 3 The Future of U.S. Coercive Airpowerp. 51
The American Way of Coercionp. 54
A Preference for Multilateralismp. 55
An Intolerance for Casualtiesp. 55
Aversion to Civilian Sufferingp. 56
A Preference for and a Belief in Technological Solutionsp. 57
A Commitment to International Normsp. 57
Summaryp. 58
Adversary Countercoercive Strategies: A Taxonomyp. 58
Create Innocent Sufferingp. 60
Shatter Alliancesp. 63
Create Counteralliancesp. 65
Create Actual or Prospective U.S. or Allied Casualtiesp. 66
Play Up Nationalism at Homep. 69
Threaten Use of WMDp. 71
The Future of U.S. Coercive Airpowerp. 74
Referencesp. 77
Part II Where Does the Usaf Need to Go?p. 83
Chapter 4 Modernizing the Combat Forces: Near-Term Optionsp. 85
Missionsp. 85
Conditions and Constraintsp. 88
Roles of Air and Space Forcesp. 91
Modernization--Key Considerationsp. 94
An Aging Fleetp. 94
Analytical Approachp. 96
Force Mix Alternativesp. 96
Approachp. 99
Force Mix Recommendationsp. 105
Fighter-Bomber Mixp. 105
Trades Among Fightersp. 113
Summary Force Mix Alternativesp. 117
Cost Sensitivitiesp. 119
Impact of Cost Growth in F-22X and F-22E Programsp. 120
Impact of Cost Growth in JSF Programp. 120
SSCs and Ongoing Deploymentsp. 123
Force Requirements to Support Deployed Aircraftp. 129
No-Fly and Exclusion Zonesp. 131
Force Structure Requirements for Ongoing Deployments and SSCsp. 135
Force Structure Implications of SSCsp. 139
Summaryp. 139
Referencesp. 141
Chapter 5 Space Challengesp. 143
Current Space Activitiesp. 143
The Civil Space Sectorp. 144
The Commercial Space Sectorp. 147
The National Security Space Sectorp. 154
World Playersp. 160
Motivations for Changep. 162
Bureaucratic and Technological Forcing Functionsp. 162
Threat-Driven Considerationsp. 165
Future Choicesp. 171
Policyp. 171
Enterprisep. 174
Organizationp. 175
Ways Aheadp. 177
Referencesp. 178
Chapter 6 U.S. Military Opportunities: Information-Warfare Concepts of Operationp. 187
Introductionp. 187
What Do We Mean by "Information Warfare"?p. 188
The Importance of Offensive Information Warfarep. 189
Emerging Asymmetric Strategiesp. 191
Increasing Niche Capabilitiesp. 192
Enemy Strategies That Target Key U.S. Vulnerabilitiesp. 196
Political Constraints on U.S. Force Deploymentsp. 198
Developing Operational Concepts for Future Offensive Information Warfarep. 200
Information-Based Deterrencep. 201
Preserving Strategic Reachp. 206
Counterstrikep. 210
Counter-C[superscript 4]ISRp. 215
Comparing the Four CONOPsp. 219
Referencesp. 222
Chapter 7 Nuclear Weapons and U.S. National Security Strategy for a New Centuryp. 225
Why a Reevaluation of U.S. Nuclear Policy Is Needed, and Why People Should Carep. 226
The Historical Context: The Legacy, Lessons, and Constraintsp. 229
The Cold War Legacyp. 229
The Sea Change--The End of the Cold Warp. 235
Why Nukes?p. 238
And Why Notp. 240
Where Nuclear Weapons Might Fitp. 241
Terror Weapons for Traditional Deterrencep. 242
Counterforcep. 244
Special Targetsp. 245
Critical Military Situationsp. 246
A Spectrum of Nuclear Optionsp. 246
Abolitionp. 247
Aggressive Reductions and "Dealerting"p. 249
"Business as Usual, Only Smaller"p. 254
A More-Aggressive Nuclear Posturep. 255
Nuclear Emphasisp. 256
Issues Affecting U.S. Choices of a Future Nuclear Strategyp. 257
Political Sustainabilityp. 257
Maintaining a Robust Nuclear Deterrentp. 257
Preparing for Operational Use of Nuclear Weaponsp. 258
Characteristics of Nuclear Weapon Systemsp. 261
Exploiting Asymmetriesp. 262
Nuclear Proliferationp. 263
Is "Withering Away" of U.S. Nuclear Capability Inevitable?p. 264
So, Where Do We Go from Here?p. 266
Bibliographyp. 274
Chapter 8 Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction and Ballistic Missilesp. 283
WMD Characteristics and Scenariosp. 284
Backgroundp. 286
Characteristics of WMD Affecting Their Usep. 290
WMD Scenariosp. 295
Implications of These WMD Scenariosp. 302
Responding to the WMD Threat: Potential Air Force Initiativesp. 306
Potential Air Force TMD Initiativesp. 308
TMD Concepts of Operationp. 310
TMD Effectiveness Analysesp. 317
Potential Air Force NMD Initiativesp. 329
Background: The Cold Warp. 330
Post-Cold War Issuesp. 332
NMD Systems Implicationsp. 335
Summaryp. 339
Bibliographyp. 341
Part III Supporting Future Forcesp. 343
Chapter 9 Providing Adequate Access for Expeditionary Aerospace Forcesp. 345
Overturep. 345
Access Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrowp. 347
A Troublesome Track Recordp. 347
The Current Context of Military Accessp. 350
Access Options: From "Pure" Strategies to a Portfoliop. 358
Five "Pure" Strategiesp. 359
Embracing Uncertainty with a Mixed Strategyp. 365
Building the Portfolio: Eight Recommendationsp. 366
Retain Existing MOBsp. 367
Build Forward Support Locationsp. 367
Plan for Uncertaintyp. 368
Build AEFs with Flexible Configurationsp. 369
Develop Improved Active and Passive Defensesp. 370
Expand Contacts with Potential Partnersp. 371
Adjust the Force Mixp. 371
Explore New Optionsp. 372
Summary of Recommendationsp. 373
Concluding Remarksp. 373
Referencesp. 374
Chapter 10 A Vision for an Evolving Agile Combat Support systemp. 377
ACS Decisions and Their "Trade Space"p. 378
An Analytic Framework for Strategic ACS Planningp. 381
Key Findings from ACS Modeling Researchp. 383
Overview of a Global ACS Systemp. 389
Strategic and Long-Term Planning for the ACS Systemp. 392
Referencesp. 393
Chapter 11 Strategic Sourcing in the Air Forcep. 397
Strategic Sourcing and Supply-Chain Alignmentp. 400
Why Is the Air Force Interested in Outsourcing?p. 405
Policy Alternatives Relevant to an Air Force Strategic Sourcing Programp. 408
Outsourcingp. 408
Privatizationp. 409
Gain Sharingp. 410
Innovative Contractingp. 411
Reengineeringp. 412
Summaryp. 412
Pursuing Strategic Sourcing and Supply-Chain Alignment in Competitive Sourcingp. 412
Eligible Inventoryp. 414
What Activities to Includep. 417
Best-Value Competitionp. 418
Performance-Based Acquisitionp. 420
Incentives for Continuous Improvementp. 423
Discussionp. 425
Looking Beyond Competitive Sourcingp. 426
Summaryp. 430
Referencesp. 431
Chapter 12 Ready for War But Not for Peace: The Apparent Paradox of Military Preparednessp. 437
Introduction: The Current Paradox of Readinessp. 437
Operational Readiness and How It Is Currently Assessedp. 441
Toward a More-Encompassing Notion of Readinessp. 445
The Great Misconception About Readinessp. 449
Estimating Some Current Major Readiness Problemsp. 451
Pilot Training and Flying Hoursp. 452
Maintainer Production and Trainingp. 454
Shortages of Partsp. 457
Reasons for Readiness Problems: Planned and Unplannedp. 459
Planned Readiness Shortfallsp. 461
Unplanned Readiness Problemsp. 464
Programmers Versus Operators: Who Should Be in Charge?p. 471
Managing Readiness: Requirements, Resources, and Processesp. 474
Conclusion: There Is No Paradoxp. 478
Referencesp. 481