Cover image for Identifying potential ethnic conflict : application of a process model
Identifying potential ethnic conflict : application of a process model
Szayna, Thomas S., 1960-
Publication Information:
Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2000.
Physical Description:
xvii, 329 pages ; 23 cm
General Note:
"MR-1188-A"--P. [4] of cover.

"Prepared for the United States Army."

"The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. DASW01-96-C-0004"--P. [2] of cover.
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GN496 .I34 2000 Adult Non-Fiction Non-Fiction Area

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Intrastate communitarian strife, often dubbed ethnic conflict, has gained much attention in the aftermath of the Cold War. Certainly, intrastate conflict has been by far the dominant form of strife in the world in the 1990s. This report outlines a model for anticipating the occurrence of communitarian and ethnic conflict. The model is not a mechanistic tool, but a process-based heuristic device with a threefold purpose: (1) to orderthe analyst's thinking about the logic and dynamics of potential ethnically based violence and to aid in defining the information-collection requirements of such an analysis; (2) to provide a general conceptual framework about how ethnic grievances form and group mobilization occurs and how these could lead to violence under certain conditions; and (3) to assist the intelligence community with the long-range assessment of possible ethnic strife. The theoretical model explains how the potential for strife should be understood; how the potential for strife is transformed, through mobilization, into a likelihood of strife; and how extant state capacities interact through a process of strategic bargaining withmobilized groups to produce, under certain conditions, varying degrees of strife. Use of the model is demonstrated through its application to four case studies, two retrospective (Yugoslavia and South Africa) and two prospective (Ethiopia and Saudi Arabia).

Table of Contents

Prefacep. iii
Figuresp. xi
Tablesp. xiii
Acknowledgmentsp. xvii
Chapter 1 Introductionp. 1
Chapter 2 The Process Model for Anticipating Ethnic Conflictp. 17
Chapter 3 The Yugoslav Retrospective Casep. 75
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Yugoslavia in the Late 1980sp. 128
Chapter 4 The South African Retrospective Casep. 133
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of South Africa in the Late 1980sp. 188
Chapter 5 The Ethiopian Prospective Casep. 193
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Ethiopia in 1997-1998p. 234
Chapter 6 The Saudi Arabian Prospective Casep. 239
Annex: Demographic Characteristics of Saudi Arabia in 1997-1998p. 276
Chapter 7 Final Observationsp. 279
Appendix: Questions and Guidelines for the Analystp. 291
About the Authorsp. 329