Cover image for Cycles, trends, and turning points : practical marketing & sales forecasting techniques
Title:
Cycles, trends, and turning points : practical marketing & sales forecasting techniques
Author:
Crosby, John V.
Personal Author:
Publication Information:
Lincolnwood, IL : NTC Business Books, [2000]

©2000
Physical Description:
xii, 321 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm
General Note:
Includes index.
Language:
English
ISBN:
9780844232447
Format :
Book

Available:*

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Status
Central Library HF5415.2 .C77 2000 Adult Non-Fiction Central Closed Stacks
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Central Library HF5415.2 .C77 2000 Adult Non-Fiction Central Closed Stacks
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Summary

Summary

Presents a systematic, graphic approach to forecasting the effectiveness of various sales and marketing activities and initiatives, for higher-level marketing and sales professionals whose duties include forecasting economies, industries, market segments, and product lines. Gives step-by-step instru


Table of Contents

Forewordp. ix
Prefacep. xi
Part I Introduction
1 Forecasting--Art or Science?p. 3
Tangible Benefits
Intangible Benefits
Forecasting and Change
A Means, Not an End
A Range of Methods
Art and Science
2 A Total Forecasting Systemp. 9
Various Schools of Thought
A Broad Economic View
An Industry View
A Company View
Business Planning
Markets
Products and Services
Marketing and Sales
Strategic Marketing
Tactical Marketing
Sales
Closing the Loop
Part II Basic Tools
3 A Graphic Approachp. 43
Cognitive Art
Envisioning Information
Displaying Complex Relationships
Cycles, Trends, and Turning Points
4 Time Seriesp. 57
Major Time Series Models
Naive Models
Moving Average Models
Exponential Smoothing Models
Which Method Is the Best?
5 Seasonal Adjustmentp. 83
Why Seasonally Adjust?
The Concept of Centering
Five Factors of Change
Census Method I
Census Method II, X-11 Variant
X-11 ARIMA
6 The Average Recession Recovery Model [ARRM]p. 97
A Special Case of Time Series
Concepts
Structure of an ARRM
Scope of Applications
Average Experience Model (AEM)
Part III Forecasting and Strategic Marketing
7 Economics, Business Cycles, and Strategic Planningp. 117
Origins of Contemporary Economics
Structure of the U.S. Economy
Industries
Markets and Products
Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
The Cycle of Business
8 Linking Economic and Company Datap. 135
Exploring Relationships
Regression and Correlation
Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators and Company Data
9 The Economic Pentadp. 147
The Five-Phase System
Monetary/Fiscal Policy Index
The Leading Indicator
Real GDP
The Lagging Indicator
Other Types of Data
10 Patterns of Changep. 155
The Concept of Indexing
Business Cycles
Cycle Patterns
Trends
Turning Points
11 The ARRMlongp. 163
Key Concepts
Growth Period
Growth Rate
Trends
Cyclical Patterns
Applications
12 Long-Term Company Forecastsp. 177
Level of Detail
Forecast Horizon
Forecast Accuracy
Part IV Forecasting and Tactical Marketing
13 Short-Term and Near-Term Forecastsp. 183
Reviewing Strategic Assumptions
Types of Forecasts
Level of Detail
Forecast Horizon
Forecast Accuracy
Forecast Analysis (FORAN)
14 Forecasting New Productsp. 193
Conventional Approaches
Average Experience Model (AEM)
Selecting the Data
Composite Data Model
Tracking Actual Versus the Model
15 Forecasting Turning Pointsp. 199
Leading Indicators
Three-Color System
Pyramid of Indicators and the Straw Man
Paired Index
16 The Revenue Forecastp. 209
The Three "B"s: Bookings, Backlog, and Billings
Forecasting Revenue
Level of Detail
Forecast Horizon
Preferred Forecast Accuracy
Part V Forecasting and Sales
17 Marketing and Sales as a Relational Processp. 217
The Account Development Cycle
Strategic Marketing
Tactical Marketing
Sales
18 Sales Opportunity Trackingp. 223
The Selling Cycle
Assumptions
Steps in the Selling Cycle
Cumulative Probabilities
Staying on Track
Sales Management
19 The Bookings Forecastp. 233
Level of Detail
Forecast Horizon
Forecast Accuracy
Part VI Monitoring Forecast Accuracy
20 Measures of Forecast Accuracyp. 241
What Is Good Enough?
Conventional Measures
The Bottom Line: Forecast Versus Actual
Control Charts
Percent Change Successfully Predicted
21 Closing the Loopp. 247
Marketing and Sales as a Relational Process
The Forecast Cycle
Strategic Marketing Forecasts (Revenue)
Tactical Marketing Forecasts (Billings)
Sales Forecasts (Bookings)
Alternative Supporting Solutions
Further Readingp. 257
Appendixes
A Numerical List of SIC Short Titlesp. 259
B X-11 Sample Printoutp. 289
C Sources for Business Statisticsp. 295
Indexp. 311

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