Cover image for Health and health care 2010 : the forecast, the challenge
Health and health care 2010 : the forecast, the challenge
Amara, Roy.
Publication Information:
San Francisco : Jossey-Bass, 2000.
Physical Description:
xx, 217 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm
General Note:
"To recognize the 25th anniversary of its founding, The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation asked the Institute for the Future (IFTF) to forecast the future of health and health care in America ..."--Introduction.
Added Author:
Format :


Call Number
Material Type
Home Location
Item Holds
RA445 .H3364 2000 Adult Non-Fiction Central Closed Stacks-Oversize
RA445.H3364 2000 SUPPL. Adult Non-Fiction Central Closed Stacks-Oversize

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In 1987 the Institute for the Future, one of Silicon Valley's venerable think tanks, published its forecast of future health trAnds-a report that is generally regarded as the most accurate projection of American health care during the volatile 1990s. In 1999, The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the largest philanthropy devoted to health care, asked the Institute to look once again into the future of health care, this time projecting to the year 2010. In honor of The Foundation's twenty-fifth anniversary, the forecast was presented to more than two thousand of its grantees. Incorporating their observations, the result is this thoroughly researched, comprehensive guide-the future of America's health.

Reviewing critical dimensions of America's health and health care system-demographics, demand for health care services, insurance, providers, consumers, medical technology, information technology, workforce, public health services, and behavioral health-the Institute has analyzed trAnds from a wide range of sources. Their blue ribbon panels of experts analyze and summarize the data into a comprehensive resource, rich with exhibits, illustrating the key data points surrounding each area. This is required reading for leaders in health policy, public health, and health care systems-anyone with a stake in the near- and long-term future of the health of Americans.

Author Notes

Institute for the Future is a not-for-profit research organization

Table of Contents

Figuresp. IX
Tablesp. XII
Sidebarsp. XIII
Abbreviations and Acronymsp. XV
Introductionp. XVII
Chapter 1 Health and Health Care Forecast: Executive Summaryp. 1
Legislationp. 1
Demographics: Patients, Populations, and New Consumersp. 2
Payers and Health Care Costsp. 4
Health Plans and Insurersp. 5
Hospitals and Physiciansp. 5
Medical and Information Technologiesp. 6
Care Processes and Medical Managementp. 8
Public Healthp. 8
Three Scenariosp. 10
Chapter 2 Demographic Trends and the Burden of Disease: Increasing Diversityp. 17
The United States Population Is Growing Older and Living Longerp. 17
The Face of America Continues to Change--Diversity Is Increasingp. 19
Household Income Is Increasing, but the Gap Between the Extremes Is Wideningp. 20
The Shifting Burden of Disease: Chronic Diseases, Mental Illness, and Lifestyle Behaviorsp. 22
Chapter 3 Health Care's Demand Side: Will Future Growth Rates Be Like Those of the Past 5 Years or the Past 30?p. 25
The Private Sectorp. 25
The Public Sectorp. 26
The Issues: What Drives Future Cost Increases?p. 27
The Forecast: Real Cost Growth at 1 Percentp. 29
The Significance of Our Cost Forecast for the Rest of Our 10-Year Outlookp. 32
Wild Cardsp. 32
Chapter 4 Health Insurance: The Three-Tiered Modelp. 35
The Issues: How Will People Receive Health Insurance?p. 37
The Forecast: The Source of Insurance--Where Are the People? ...p. 40
... and What Type of Insurance Will They Have?p. 43
Tiering Will Increasep. 44
Wild Cardsp. 45
Chapter 5 Health Care Providers: Themes of the Future Delivery Systemp. 47
Intermediariesp. 48
Reimbursement Models: Between Finance and Deliveryp. 52
Care Delivery Organizations for the Next Decadep. 56
Medical Management: The New Arena of Activityp. 60
What Happens to Hospitals?p. 62
Wild Cardsp. 70
Chapter 6 Health Care Workforce: Future Supply and Demandp. 73
Physiciansp. 73
Nursesp. 79
Physicians' Assistantsp. 81
Future Employmentp. 82
Wild Cardsp. 83
Chapter 7 Medical Technologies: Effects on Carep. 87
Rational Drug Designp. 88
Advances in Imagingp. 90
Minimally Invasive Surgeryp. 93
Genetic Mapping and Testingp. 95
Gene Therapyp. 98
Vaccinesp. 101
Artificial Bloodp. 103
Xenotransplantationp. 104
Wild Cardsp. 106
Chapter 8 Information Technologies: Will Health Care Join in the Information Age?p. 109
Base Technologiesp. 110
The Forecast: Four Big Effects in Health Carep. 113
Progression of Information Technology into Health Carep. 120
Wild Cardsp. 122
Chapter 9 Health Care Consumers: The Haves and the Have-Notsp. 123
Three Tiers of Health Care Consumersp. 125
Forecast and Assumptionsp. 131
Wild Cardsp. 135
Chapter 10 Public Health Services: A Challenging Futurep. 139
The History of Public Health in the United Statesp. 139
Key Factors Affecting Public Health in America Todayp. 142
Technologyp. 149
Public Health Frameworks and Strategies: Problems of Perceptionp. 150
Reconciling Public Health and Private Medicinep. 152
The Future: Scenarios and Forecastsp. 156
Forecast of the Future: Organizational Issuesp. 157
Chapter 11 Health Behaviors: Small Steps in the Right Directionp. 161
Alcohol and Drug Abuse in Americap. 162
Injury Prevention: A Focus on Gunsp. 174
Tobacco Use and Healthp. 179
Wild Cardsp. 183
Chapter 12 Expanded Perspective on Health: Beyond the Curative Modelp. 187
Definition of Healthp. 189
Stressp. 190
Socioeconomic Status As a Determinant of Healthp. 191
What's New? Why Now?p. 192
Consumer Expectationsp. 193
Deteriorating Health Conditionsp. 194
Global Health Perspectivep. 195
The Future: Shifting Paradigmsp. 197
The Paradigm Shift: Evolution or Revolution?p. 198
Wild Cardsp. 199
Glossaryp. 201
Indexp. 209