Cover image for Dow 100,000 fact or fiction
Dow 100,000 fact or fiction
Kadlec, Charles W.
Personal Author:
Publication Information:
New York : New York Institute of Finance, [1999]

Physical Description:
xxiii, 295 pages : illustrations, map ; 24 cm

Format :


Call Number
Material Type
Home Location
Item Holds
HG4910 .K26 1999 Adult Non-Fiction Central Closed Stacks

On Order



In the seventeen years between 1965 and 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average did not go up at all. In the next seventeen years, between 1982 and 1999, the Dow increased tenfold. What will the market do over the next twenty years?

Reviews 1

Booklist Review

The Dow Jones industrial average is the stock market indicator most often watched by investors and pundits alike. If it continues at its present five-year pace, it is due to crash the 33,000 mark in 2004. Glassman and Hassett ask, though, "Why wait?" Both authors are affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank. Glassman wrote an investment column for the Washington Post, but he has since left to do consulting. Hassett is a former economist for the Federal Reserve. Last year they wrote a provocative piece for the Wall Street Journal, tweaking Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan and arguing that stocks were undervalued by as much as a factor of four. Their book elaborates their case, which claims that the use of such historical measures as dividends and price-earnings ratios are no longer valid and that stocks are no more risky than Treasury bonds. They present a new model to determine a stock's "perfectly reasonable price." Kadlec, an investment strategist with Seligman Advisors, is even bolder. He asserts that the Dow will peak 100,000 by 2020. To do so would require a sustained 11.1 percent annual rate of advance. This will be possible, Kadlec argues, because the end of the cold war has resulted in global stability, baby boomers are increasingly saving for their retirement, technological advances have lead to increased productivity, the spread of freedom worldwide has led to widespread prosperity, and governments still must continue to compete economically. Kadlec does offer several caveats, emphasizing that the signposts to watch are tax rates, inflation, and trade policy. Both of these books will surely attract investors and stir skeptics. --David Rouse

Table of Contents

Acknowledgmentsp. vii
Forewordp. xiii
Introductionp. xvii
1 Setting the Course--The Great Prosperityp. 1
Part I The Signposts
2 Signpost #1: The Direction of Tax Ratesp. 25
3 Signpost #2: The Direction of Inflationp. 44
4 Signpost #3: The Direction of Trade Policyp. 69
Part II The Map
5 The Peace Dividend--An Open Road Aheadp. 91
6 The Boomers--The Acceleratorp. 110
7 The Technological Revolution--The Superchargerp. 133
8 The Spread of Freedom--Untapped Powerp. 150
9 Global Competition--The Creative Sparkp. 169
10 Possible Detours--The Threats to Dow 100,000p. 188
Part III The Road Ahead
11 The Destination--Dow 100,000p. 205
12 The Journey Ahead--Investing in the Great Prosperityp. 222
13 The Journey Ahead--Harvesting a Lifetime of Savingp. 246
14 Implementing Your Investment Strategyp. 257
Epiloguep. 271
Appendixp. 277
Bibliographyp. 281
Indexp. 285