Cover image for Dow 40,000 : strategies for profiting from the greatest bull market in history
Title:
Dow 40,000 : strategies for profiting from the greatest bull market in history
Author:
Elias, David, 1945-
Personal Author:
Publication Information:
New York : McGraw-Hill, [1999]

©1999
Physical Description:
xiii, 209 pages : illustrations ; 24 cm
Language:
English
ISBN:
9780071351287
Format :
Book

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Summary

Summary

The author of this guide predicts that the Dow Jones will reach 40,000 by the year 2016 - but it won't be plain sailing all the way. To profit from the strongest bull market in history, investors will need to take advantage of the inevitable downturns, and this text offers advice on just that.


Author Notes

David Elias is president and chief investment officer of Elias Asset Management Inc. For more than 25 years he has been advising individuals, corporate pension and profit-sharing plans, and foundations. Elias is a regular guest expert on CNBC's Today's Business, Market Wrap, and Taking Stock; CNN's Moneyline and Business Day; PBS's Nightly Business Report; CNNfn; and has appeared on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser, and NBC's Today. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Barron's, and Business Week. Currently a contributing editor to Chief Executive magazine.


Table of Contents

Forewordp. ix
Introductionp. xi
Acknowledgmentsp. xiii
Part 1 Setting the Stage for a Soaring Dow
Chapter 1 By the Numbersp. 3
Historyp. 3
Is the Dow a Good Yardstick?p. 4
40,000 by 2016?p. 7
The Key Is Long-Term Growthp. 9
How Do We Get There?p. 11
The New Economyp. 11
Direct Foreign Investmentp. 12
Domestic Savingsp. 13
Improving Cash Flowp. 14
Balanced Budget Agreementp. 16
Cooperative Central Banking Policiesp. 18
Conclusionp. 19
Chapter 2 Global Growth and Capitalizationp. 23
Where the United States Standsp. 24
China and the Asian Marketsp. 26
Indiap. 30
A Shift in Powerp. 31
Transitionp. 33
The Role of Interest Ratesp. 35
The End of the Cold Warp. 37
The Czech Republicp. 41
Latin Americap. 43
Conclusionp. 45
Chapter 3 Social Security, Economics 101, and a Booming Economyp. 47
Economics 101p. 48
Negative Incentives Depress Savingsp. 49
Social Security Solvencyp. 49
Privatization: A Tough Political Sellp. 53
Incentivesp. 55
Privatizationp. 56
Methodologyp. 58
Individual Retirement Accountsp. 60
The Private Optionp. 61
The Proposed Plan's Advantagesp. 62
Financing the Transitionp. 63
Taxesp. 64
The Federal Budget Deficitp. 66
Conclusionp. 68
Chapter 4 Demographics and the "Post-Capitalist Society"p. 71
The Baby Boomersp. 72
Asia's Youthp. 75
The Long-Wave Cyclep. 76
A Post-Capitalist Societyp. 77
Conclusionp. 78
Chapter 5 Interest Rates and Inflationp. 79
Interest Ratesp. 79
Is the Economy Overheated?p. 80
Statistical Shortcomingsp. 83
CPI Revisionsp. 84
Conclusionp. 85
Chapter 6 Productivity and Technologyp. 87
The Importance of Productivityp. 88
Instant Manufacturingp. 91
Technologyp. 93
The Internet Agep. 95
Internet Shoppingp. 97
E-mail Communicationp. 98
Productivity and the Baby Boomersp. 99
Productivity and Measurementp. 99
Conclusionp. 102
Part 2 Winning Investment Strategies For Dow 40,000
Chapter 7 Winning Investment Strategiesp. 107
Developing Themes for Equity Investmentsp. 107
Technologyp. 110
Health Carep. 117
Financial Servicesp. 119
Market Sector Performancep. 122
Beyond the Baby Boomersp. 124
Chapter 8 Investment Themes for the Next 20 Yearsp. 125
Risk and Returnp. 126
Determining Risk Tolerancep. 129
Risk and Timep. 131
Time Versus Timingp. 134
Allocating Riskp. 136
Stock Characteristicsp. 137
Individual Stocks Versus Mutual Fundsp. 139
Chapter 9 Funds for the Futurep. 143
An Instant Portfoliop. 144
A Mutual Funds Primerp. 145
Making Investment Decisionsp. 148
Beating the Marketp. 149
Matching the Marketp. 150
Dogs, Diamonds, and Spiders (Oh, My!)p. 154
Chapter 10 Stocks to Own and Model Portfoliosp. 157
ATandT Corp. (NYSE: T)p. 159
American Express Company (NYSE: AXP)p. 162
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C)p. 165
Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO)p. 168
Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS)p. 171
Exxon Corp. (NYSE: XON)p. 173
General Electric Company (NYSE: GE)p. 176
International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM)p. 178
Merck and Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK)p. 182
Procter and Gamble Company (NYSE: PG)p. 185
United Technologies Corporation (NYSE: UTX)p. 187
Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT)p. 189
Model Portfoliosp. 192
David's Dow Dozenp. 192
Long-Standing American Companies with Worldwide Experiencep. 193
Face of the Earth Companiesp. 193
Fountainhead Companies in Their Industry Sectorsp. 194
Investing in the Obviousp. 194
Financial Sectorp. 195
Technology Sectorp. 195
Health Carep. 196
Conclusionp. 196
Indexp. 199