Cover image for Preparing for Korean unification : scenarios and implications
Title:
Preparing for Korean unification : scenarios and implications
Author:
Pollack, Jonathan D.
Personal Author:
Publication Information:
Santa Monica, CA : RAND, [1999]

©1999
Physical Description:
xx, 98 pages : map ; 23 cm
General Note:
"Prepared for the United States Army."

"MR-1040-A."
Language:
English
Added Author:
ISBN:
9780833027214
Format :
Book

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DS917.444 .P65 1999 Adult Non-Fiction Central Closed Stacks-Non circulating
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Summary

Summary

This study examines four alternative scenarios that would result in the unification of the Korean peninsula. The authors describe the defining characteristics of each scenario, potential indicators that would predict specific outcomes, some possible variations in paths to unification, and some operational implications for the U.S. Army under different conditions and circumstances. The four scenarios (peaceful unification, collapse and absorption, unification through armed conflict, and disequilibrium and external intervention) highlight both the increasing vulnerabilities of the North Korean state and the substantial uncertainties that attach to each outcome and to the potential U.S. policy respones.


Table of Contents

Prefacep. iii
Figuresp. vii
Tablesp. ix
Summaryp. xi
Acknowledgmentsp. xix
Chapter 1 Introductionp. 1
Chapter 2 The North Korean Conundrump. 27
Chapter 3 Scenario 1: Integration and Peaceful Unificationp. 49
Chapter 4 Scenario 2: Collapse and Absorptionp. 57
Chapter 5 Scenario 3: Unification through Conflictp. 67
Chapter 6 Scenario 4: Disequilibrium and Potential External Interventionp. 75
Chapter 7 Postunification Dynamics and Their Regional Implicationsp. 83
Chapter 8 Implications for the Armyp. 93