Cover image for Recent recruiting trends and their implications for models of enlistment supply
Recent recruiting trends and their implications for models of enlistment supply
Murray, Michael P., 1946-
Personal Author:
Publication Information:
Santa Monica, CA : RAND, [1999]

Physical Description:
xiii, 83 pages ; 23 cm
General Note:
"Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the U.S. Army."
Reading Level:
1410 Lexile.
Format :


Call Number
Material Type
Home Location
Item Holds
UB323 .M87 1999 Adult Non-Fiction Central Closed Stacks-Non circulating

On Order



The authors estimate an econometric model of high-quality enlistment supply using geographically disaggregated data from two periods, FY83-87 and FY90-93. They find that econometric models based on data from the earlier period do not predict the recruiting difficulties reported by the military in the 1990s. This conforms to a preliminary assessment provided by Asch and Orvis (MR-549-A/OSD, 1994). The authors also find that econometric models estimated with the 1990s data give altered counsel about the effects of at least some policy variables, most notably the number of recruiters.

Table of Contents

Prefacep. iii
Figuresp. vii
Tablesp. ix
Summaryp. xi
Acknowledgmentsp. xiii
Chapter 1 Introductionp. 1
High-Quality Enlistment Supply and Demandp. 2
Plan of the Reportp. 4
Chapter 2 Variables Influencing Enlistment Supplyp. 7
Overviewp. 7
Time-Series/Cross-Section Structurep. 8
Variables Linked to Youths' Opportunitiesp. 9
Civilian Opportunitiesp. 9
Military Opportunitiesp. 10
Variables Linked to Recruiting Effortp. 12
Expected Recruiting Performancep. 13
Goalsp. 15
Recruitersp. 16
Numbers of Youths and Numbers of Contractsp. 16
Geographic and Temporal Dummy Variablesp. 20
Chapter 3 The Econometric Modelsp. 21
A Formal Modelp. 21
Econometric Strategyp. 25
Particulars for the Four Servicesp. 28
Chapter 4 Empirical Resultsp. 31
Estimated Modelsp. 31
The Army Modelp. 33
The Marine Corps Modelp. 40
The Air Force Modelp. 44
The Navy Modelp. 47
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Recommendationsp. 51
A. A Formal Model of Enlistment Supplyp. 55
B. The Stochastic Specification and Estimation Proceduresp. 61
C. Estimation Results for Aggregate and Logarithmic Models for the Armyp. 75
Bibliographyp. 81