Cover image for Does perstempo hurt reenlistment? : the effect of long or hostile perstempo on reenlistment
Does perstempo hurt reenlistment? : the effect of long or hostile perstempo on reenlistment
Hosek, James R.
Personal Author:
Publication Information:
Santa Monica, CA : RAND, [1998]

Physical Description:
xix, 110 pages : illustrations ; 28 cm
General Note:
"Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, National Defense Research Institute."
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UB323 .H668 1998 Adult Non-Fiction Central Closed Stacks-Oversize Non-Circ

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Manpower constitutes a vital element of the nation's defense capability, one that must be sustained if tomorrow's force is to be ready for the wide set of contingencies currently envisioned in the post-Cold War world. The authors focus on a key aspect of this concern: the effect of recent personnel tempo, or perstempo, on reenlistment. They develop several new measures of perstempo as well as construct a theoretical model of retention that encompasses the effects of perstempo. They report that limited episodes of long separation or hostile duty positively affect the decision to stay by first-term or early-career service members. However, more extensive duty, especially if it is hostile, can reduce this positive effect; in some cases, long or hazardous duty reduces reenlistment below what it would have been in the absence of such duty. The authors also recommend new methods of data collection and analysis, and propose future studies that would enhance retention.

Table of Contents

Prefacep. iii
Figuresp. vii
Tablesp. ix
Summaryp. xi
Acknowledgmentsp. xix
Chapter 1 Introductionp. 1
Backgroundp. 1
Purpose and Organization of Studyp. 2
Chapter 2 Pay-Based Measures of Perstempop. 3
Measuring Perstempop. 3
Specific Measuresp. 6
Long or Hostile Duty--Totalp. 6
Long or Hostile Duty--Unitp. 8
Months: Total and Hostilep. 8
Episodes: Total and Hostilep. 10
Critique of Measuresp. 10
Chapter 3 Long or Hostile Duty Trends and Extentp. 15
Trends in Long or Hostile Duty--Totalp. 16
By Servicep. 16
By Occupationp. 20
Total Versus Unit Ratesp. 24
Incidence over 24 Monthsp. 25
24-Month Incidence by Occupationp. 26
Months of Long or Hostile Duty in 24 Monthsp. 28
Total and Hostile Episodes in 24 Monthsp. 29
Chapter 4 A Model of Deployment and Reenlistmentp. 33
Overviewp. 33
Guidance from Theoryp. 35
Chapter 5 Regression Analysis of Long or Hostile Duty and Reenlistmentp. 41
Estimation Methodp. 41
Resultsp. 42
Monthsp. 42
Episodesp. 45
Predictionsp. 47
Percentage with Net Negative Effect on Reenlistmentp. 47
Adding One Episode or Three Monthsp. 48
Capping Long Duty in the Navyp. 50
Data Explorationsp. 51
Chapter 6 Conclusionp. 55
Measures Matterp. 55
Changes in Monthly Rates Signal Larger Changes in 24-Month Incidencep. 56
Is Long or Hostile Duty Good for Reenlistment?p. 56
Where is the Margin?p. 57
Further Analysisp. 58
A A Theory of Deployment, Promotion, and Retentionp. 61
B Stated Interest in Joining the Militaryp. 77
C Data, Variables, Regressionsp. 79
D Dependents Status Tables and Regressionsp. 93
Referencesp. 109